Nearly 5 years after Uri, ERCOT says Texas power grid will be stable this winter

Still, ERCOT’s models indicate that Texas could be in trouble if a storm similar to Uri hits large parts of the state this winter. If electric demand approaches ERCOT’s record of 85,508 megawatts, which was set in August 2023, there is a 62% chance of a grid emergency in December, a roughly 25% chance in January and about a 10% chance in February.

Demand could surpass 96,000 megawatts during extreme, Uri-like conditions, shattering previous records, ERCOT projects. However, the grid operator noted in its February report that the probability of a storm severe enough to cause over 96,000 megawatts of demand hitting Texas this winter is “well under 1 percent.”

The forecast

This winter is expected to be mild in Texas, said Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s vice president of system operations.

“Even [with] an above-average temperature period over the course of the whole winter, that doesn't mean that we will not see a significant cold spell, or one or more significant cold spells,” Woodfin said Dec. 9. “I think there may be more potential for that this year.”

This winter could also “rank among the driest of winters” in Texas, Woodfin said in a presentation to the ERCOT board. Texas saw three cold snaps and snow in parts of the state last winter, Community Impact previously reported.

More details

Texans can sign up to receive notifications about changes in grid conditions at www.ercot.com/txans and register for ERCOT’s emergency alerts here. ERCOT issues the following advisories and alerts based on grid conditions:

• Weather watch: This advisory indicates that extreme weather may cause high electric demand and lower power reserves, although grid conditions are expected to be normal. ERCOT last issued a weather watch ahead of a February cold snap, Community Impact reported.
• Voluntary conservation notice: ERCOT asks residents to voluntarily reduce their energy use, if safe to do so, during a specific time period when demand is expected to be high with low wind and solar energy capacity. This was last used in January 2024.
• Conservation appeal: A conservation appeal is an “elevated request” for Texans to conserve energy during peak demand periods that could lead to a grid emergency. More information about conservation requests is available here.
• Energy Emergency Alert Level 1: ERCOT enters emergency operations if the grid’s operating reserves fall below 2,500 megawatts and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes. During this time, ERCOT may work with other grid operators to bring more power to the Texas grid. In comparison, ERCOT had over 14,900 megawatts of operating reserves as of press time, according to the agency’s grid conditions dashboard.
• Energy Emergency Alert Level 2: ERCOT may heighten emergency operations if reserves drop below 2,000 megawatts or grid frequency falls below 59.91 hertz. The agency can use strategies such as paying large industrial customers to reduce their energy use during this time.
• Energy Emergency Alert Level 3: During the highest level of emergency operations, ERCOT directs utility companies to conduct rotating power outages, which the agency said is a “last resort” to avoid a systemwide blackout. Per agency records, ERCOT last required rotating outages for about four days during Winter Storm Uri.

Texans last experienced a grid emergency, which did not include rotating outages, in September 2023 as electric reserves dropped during a heat wave, agency records show. The state grid withstood three freezes in early 2025 without any conservation requests, according to previous Community Impact reporting.