The projected increases come despite the district facing a shorter-term enrollment decline starting in 2023, students transferring out and other factors impacting enrollment.
The current situation
District enrollment sat at 8,222 students in fall 2024, down around 100 students or about 1.5% from fall 2023, said Brent Alexander, School Design Strategies director of demographic research, during a board presentation May 19.
SMCISD enrollment has increased about 0.6% over the past three years, from the 2021-22 school year to the 2024-25 school year. SMCISD ranks 21st for growth among 30 Austin-area school districts, Alexander said.
Additionally, while the district has historically seen faster enrollment growth with more kindergarten and first grade students incoming compared to outgoing seniors, the gap has closed over the past two years. From 2023 to 2024, SMCISD has had fewer kindergarten and first grade students incoming, with more outgoing seniors.
The birth rate has also been flat from 2013 to 2021, resulting in a gradual decline in enrollment in earlier grades.
Alexander said transfers out have impacted the district as well. SMCISD saw a record number of students transferring out during the 2023-24 school year with 1,214 transfers, according to data from the Texas Education Agency’s Public Education Information Management System. For the 2024-25 school year, transfers decreased to 887 students.
TEA data showed students transferred to other charter schools, such as Ki Charter Academy and IDEA campuses. Other students moved to neighboring districts, including Wimberly ISD and Hays CISD. About 12% of transfers attended virtual public schools, he said.
Alexander said new single-family developments are bringing in lower yields of students compared to previous years. New subdivisions produced an average of 0.45 enrolled students per single-family home in the 2024-25 school year, compared to 0.56 in 2019-20, SDS data showed.
Single-family home sizes are trending smaller, Alexander said, impacting the number of students the home could yield. Additionally, there was a slight increase in the number of students living in apartments beginning 2021-22 through the 2022-23 school year with a 0.17 student yield. However, the current average sits at 0.15 enrolled students per unit.
New developments, future projections
Future enrollment depends heavily on new residential developments, Alexander said.
The 2025 housing market outlook depends on 30-year mortgage rates. Rates near 6% are more favorable, compared to 7% rates, in which consumers tend to “back away” from the housing market, Alexander’s presentation stated. As of March 13, 2025, the 30-year interest rate was at 6.65%, he said.
In the past 12 months, developers delivered 985 new single-family residential lots in SMCISD, but only 311 homes were occupied by the end of 2024.
However, about 3,100 total new home closings are projected in the district over the next five years, SDS data showed. About 4,400 apartment units are currently planned or in-process, with most expected to be constructed or leased out by 2033.
Home closings could increase to 700 to 1,000 units per year by 2030 if there are more single-family lots developed and if economic conditions improve, Alexander said.
A new development, Cottonseed Farms in Caldwell County, is anticipated for 2028 delivery and has potential for a 16-acre SMCISD site, he said, which would impact enrollment projections.
On the low end, the district would increase to almost 8,500 students by 2030. On the moderate end with more residential developments that would yield more students, enrollment in 2030 could be around 8,900 students. The district would reach overcapacity in 2032 with 9,797 students based on moderate projections.
Looking ahead
Superintendent Michael Cardona said district officials need to find out why students and families are transferring outside of the district in order to prevent additional declining enrollment numbers.
Trustee Miguel Arredondo said the district also needs to actively engage with prospective families when they reach out to campuses, in an effort to increase enrollment.
