Demographic report shows delayed parenthood driving lower enrollment projections for Round Rock ISD

A decline in enrollment is on the horizon for Round Rock ISD, demographers said in April.

The situation

A demographic update presented at the April 16 meeting shows that the population of Round Rock is generally becoming younger, combined with a trend of delayed parenthood.

Rocky Gardner, a demographer with Zonda Education, said the district captures around 81% of students born in its district. However, 64% of the population within the bounds of RRISD are made up of people born between 1981 and the present—millennials, Generation Z and Generation Alpha.

Presently, he said, the majority of parents with school-aged children are millennials, born between 1981 and 1998, per the report.

The projections

Projections shared at the meeting show student enrollment could decrease by nearly 5,000 students from 45,952 in the 2025-26 school year to 41,015 in the 2035-36 school year. This represents a roughly 10.7% decrease in projected enrollment.

What they're saying

Gardner said delayed parenthood, an increasing number of educational alternatives and recent patterns of enrolling fewer students than are graduating at the end of a school year are behind new enrollment estimates showing the district might only have around 41,000 students enrolled in the 2035-36 school year.

“We're in a negative spin until those class sizes come a little closer,” Gardner said.

Looking back

In May 2025, Zonda Education consultant Hudson Huff told the board enrollment projections were uncertain, sharing low, middle and high enrollment scenarios. At the time, the driver cited for uncertainty was housing market activity.