The Zonda Education report suggests that home prices and interest rates have made it difficult for young families to purchase a home in the district. Even as more homes are built, sales within the district have fallen by roughly half over the past three years, Zonda President Bob Templeton said.
Demographers from the firm indicated that the recent decrease could have a lasting impact on student enrollment, as young families are more likely to have school-aged children. The uncertainty around enrollment comes with a potential financial impact, administrators say, as Texas schools rely on a combination of enrollment and attendance to receive funding.
Current situation
Despite a large number of homes being built within Round Rock ISD, the school district’s future enrollment is uncertain, demographers said.
A report capturing data from the last quarter of 2024 shows home sales in RRISD fell by roughly half over the past three years. Based on this data, as well as housing starts, closings and home prices, Zonda predicted three enrollment scenarios for RRISD—ranging from a decrease of 1,061 students to an increase of about 1,730 students—by the 2034-35 school year.
The high-growth scenario still falls 2,263 students short from the district’s peak enrollment of 50,953 in the 2019-20 school year.
The difference, Zonda President Bob Templeton said, is dependent on the local housing market, as well as other factors.
One cause, he said, is that people are choosing to stay in their homes longer.
“These homeowners are staying in their homes past the kids graduating,” Templeton said. “They don’t move until the grandkids come into the picture.”
Historically, younger families have purchased existing homes because they tend to be more affordable. However, the report shows there is little difference between the price of new and existing homes within RRISD.
“More and more first-time homebuyers are looking for new homes because they’re a little more affordable,” Templeton said.
Housing market activity has consequences for the district financially, via the route of enrollment, school administrators said.
Enrollment numbers, along with the district’s average daily attendance, determine how much state funding RRISD receives. With less families buying homes within the district, enrollment growth could stall. Facilities, transportation and programming costs have all grown beyond the $55 per-student increase to the basic allotment approved through House Bill 2, Round Rock ISD Superintendent Hafedh Azaiez said. Without enrollment growth or an increase in per-student funding, he said the district has less and less purchasing power.
While HB 2 will provide an $8.4 billion boost to public education statewide, Azaiez said requirements around how the new money is spent is limiting for the district.
“That’s why for a long time we’ve been asking the legislators, ‘Please increase the basic allotment,’ because that’s really what we use,” Azaiez said. “It’s the foundation of what it costs to educate a child.”
The legislation requires Texas public schools to use new monies in a specific way, largely to increase compensation for nonadministrator employees. Throughout the budgetary process, Azaiez and other district administrators stated that this directed use of funds limits their ability to fund other programs as needed.
Sen. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe, who sponsored HB 2 in the Senate, told Community Impact that the targeted funding will help ensure a larger share goes directly to the classroom.
Several area districts, including RRISD, approved smaller pay increases for staff who didn’t qualify for HB 2 raises, citing the bill as a reason they weren’t able to provide larger increases.
Azaiez said the district is experiencing a slowdown of development overall, due to higher interest rates and a reluctance to sell land to developers.
The district is also one of many across the state experiencing lower birth rates, he said.
At the same time, undeveloped land within RRISD’s borders is dwindling, Templeton said. He estimated that within five years the district will be built out.
“They’re kind of landlocked,” Templeton said. “They still have a little bit of land on the east side, but for the most part, their developable land mass is virtually at the end.”
Over time, and if the trend of homeowners choosing to remain in their houses persists, this could lead to a decline in enrollment, he said.
Tanya Kerr, a Realtor and former RRISD campus assistant principal, said the housing market is correcting itself, with interest rates and prices in better proportion.
She said this is due to a larger number of homes available and fewer buyers in the market.
Higher interest rates have lowered the purchasing power of buyers, she said. Conversely, homeowners who were able to buy at a lower interest rate are remaining in their homes, leading to less movement in the housing market.
“I do think families are trying to make a move, but the desire has to be stronger than the fear of the interest rate and the economy,” Kerr said.
RRISD saw growth in student enrollment of about 880 students for the 2024-25 school year, Templeton said, well above what his firm projected for the school district.
The district’s marketing campaign drew additional students to its early childhood programs, and the higher of the three future enrollment scenarios is based on the assumption that RRISD would continue to aggressively recruit new students.
Amid the rise of alternatives to public schools, Azaiez said the district is working to tell its own story.
“There’s nothing like Round Rock ISD,” Azaiez said. “The opportunities and the choices that students have with us—there is no match in virtual, private, charter or even surrounding school districts. We are a destination district.”
When Kortney and Xavier Martinez were looking for their new home, they said education was top of mind. Kortney said the opportunities at RRISD were a deciding factor in purchasing their home in February 2024 through a first-time homebuyers program.
“Without that program, we wouldn’t have probably been able to purchase a home in the area because of the home prices,” Kortney Martinez said.
The district will continue its recruiting efforts in the coming years, Azaiez said, as enrollment has a direct impact on funding.
For each student in the district, RRISD receives $6,215 in basic allotment funding. Students who meet other criteria, such as receiving special education services or career and technical education, can bring additional funding for the district.
“Even the money that they allocated to account for inflation was not even nearly enough. ... Almost every school district in the state of Texas is going through tough times,” Azaiez said.
Looking ahead
Other factors that could cause a drop in enrollment, Templeton said, include growing participation in charter schools, online education platforms, homeschooling and the upcoming education savings account program, which is set to begin with the 2026-27 school year.
Going into the 2025-26 school year, administrators confirmed that the district had reduced positions by attrition, with enrollment projected to be nearly flat.
Azaiez said the district budgeted for this school year to accommodate the middle-growth scenario, or an additional 90 students, and could absorb up to a 500-student decline in enrollment without making additional budget changes. Official enrollment figures for this school year will be determined in October.
