What you need to know
In a quarterly report to the district, Bob Templeton of demographics firm Zonda Education said the district could begin to see enrollment rise again over the next 10 years after a period of decline.
These conclusions, he said, are based on housing market data, including the number of bedrooms per home, and whether or not homes are intended for single- or multifamily.
The details
There are currently 4,200 apartments, condominiums, duplexes and other kinds of multifamily housing units under construction in Round Rock, Templeton said. This kind of local growth factors heavily into projections for school enrollment, he said, and strong growth would see the district hit an enrollment of about 48,300 students by the start of the 2033-34 school year. The district's enrollment has declined to 46,126 in the 2023-24 school year, from a peak of 50,953 in the 2019-20 school year.
However, high home prices resulting from heightened interest rates over the past two years have slowed growth in the area, combined with the small supply of available land.
In another scenario, which Templeton described as representing a lower rate of growth, the district would see its enrollment level off at 44,100 students in five years.
One of the factors contributing to this slowing of growth, Templeton said, is that homeowners are holding on to their homes longer than they have in the past, having benefitted from lower interest rates during 2020 and 2021. Another factor, he said, is the departure of students from the district to attend charter or private school, or choosing to homeschool, although new data shows that this slowed in the 2023-24 school year.
What they're saying
While a majority of land within the district's boundaries is developed, there are some properties that are either planned for development or are under construction that would bring additional housing for future RRISD families.
"You do still have pockets of growth that will require some planning, adjustments through either additions or new capacity," Templeton said. "I hate to say this word, or 'boundary adjustments.' But that can be a strategy that some districts will use to help with these pockets of growth."
