What you need to know
ERCOT, which operates the electric grid for 90% of Texas, found in a Nov. 7 report that there should be “sufficient generating capacity available” to serve customers throughout January. The grid operator said the same thing in an Oct. 3 report analyzing expected grid conditions for December, Community Impact previously reported.
In the winter, demand for electricity spikes when people get up in the morning and return home in the evening. Less solar and wind power are available during these “higher-risk” periods, which can cause tight grid conditions, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said last year.
ERCOT forecasts that the tightest period in December and January will be from 7-8 a.m. daily, when little to no solar power is being produced. During that time, ERCOT found the chances of a grid emergency are:However, ERCOT’s models indicate that grid conditions could become tight if a winter storm blankets Texas, pushing temperatures down and electric demand up.
ERCOT hit a new record for winter demand in February, reaching 80,525 megawatts of demand on the grid in a single day. This winter, if a severe winter storm leads to similar levels of electric demand between 7-8 a.m., the agency’s models show a roughly 35% chance of a grid emergency in December. That risk falls to less than 10% in January.
If demand approaches ERCOT’s all-time record of 85,508 megawatts, which was set in August 2023, there is a 62% chance of a grid emergency in December and about a 25% chance in January, according to the reports.
“The probability of the hourly load reaching 85,000 MW for [7-8 a.m.] is under one percent,” the December report notes.
The background
Texans last experienced a grid emergency in September 2023 as electric reserves dropped during a heat wave, agency records show. ERCOT last requested voluntary energy conservation, a strategy used to keep emergency operations at bay when demand is high and wind and solar capacity are low, in January 2024.
The Texas grid withstood three cold snaps in early 2025 without any conservation requests, according to previous Community Impact reporting.
What they’re saying
To minimize risks to the grid, energy experts have encouraged state lawmakers and officials to invest in energy efficiency and residential demand response programs.
“We Texans, we don't want anybody touching our thermostat, so you’ve got to think about innovative ways to make this happen,” ERCOT board chair Bill Flores said during a Nov. 6 speech at the Texas Energy Summit in Austin. “But it's quick to develop, simple to administer. It can be popular to join, and it's cost-effective.”
Under voluntary demand response programs, residential customers can choose to install smart thermostats that can be controlled remotely by their electric provider when demand on the grid is high, according to documents from the Public Utility Commission of Texas.
“We [need to] have a resilient grid for all the extreme weather we're seeing,” PUC Commissioner Courtney Hjaltman said during a Nov. 5 panel at the summit. “We need to have a resilient grid that deals with cyber attacks and terroristic threats, and we need to have a grid that is ready and able and reliable and competitive and still affordable for the people of Texas.”
ERCOT and the PUC are also developing new rules that could require data centers and other large electric consumers to supply backup power and switch to those reserves if grid conditions become tight. Those rules are based on Senate Bill 6, a recent Texas law aimed at increasing grid reliability and protecting residential customers from power outages, and will likely be finalized next year, according to ERCOT documents.
