In a nutshell
A quarterly update from demographics firm Zonda Education shows Bastrop ISD's student population is growing as many independent school districts around the state are experiencing a decline in enrollment.
Rocky Gardiner, director of school district consulting for the firm, said business activity in the area and potential for housing development are key factors driving enrollment growth.
The details
Between the 2019-20 and 2024-25 school years, BISD enrollment increased by about 1,936 students, Gardiner said in an April 15 presentation to the district's school board. This accounts for about 20% of all growth in Region 13, which covers most of Central Texas. The region added 8,561 students in that time, he said. For the region, that's about a 2.3% increase.
"The challenge that we're seeing is the enrollment change," Gardiner said. "That's what the state's seeing right now. It's all enrollment growth, even though we're probably the fastest growing area in the country."
Gardiner attributed slowed growth statewide in recent years to charter and virtual education growth. In the 2024-25 school year, ISDs added 13,000 new students to their rolls, while charter schools enrolled 18,000 new students, he said.
"Last year was about the same," he said. "Pre-COVID we were adding 50,000 students a year statewide. There's a lot of students [that] just haven't come back."
Some context
The district has 31 actively building subdivisions within its bounds, he said, accounting for about 4,800 lots that future homes can be built on. These projections, also known as "housing futures," are one of the factors help the firm make projections about school enrollment.
18 more subdivisions are in various stages of planning, Gardiner said, and will make about 21,700 lots available for future homes.
There are also many multifamily developments in the works, he said. However, housing starts in the area are beginning to slow down, he said, in line with regional housing market trends.
What's next?
The district will open two middle schools and one elementary school this fall to address growth needs, after the conversion of its intermediate campuses. Voter-approved bond proposals include plans for a second new elementary school in the future.
