Fort Bend ISD sees slowing enrollment, smallest kindergarten class in 18 years

Fort Bend ISD’s enrollment is nearing stabilization in its demographic lifecycle as certain areas within the district are both growing and declining, said Stacey Tepera, president of demographic firm Population and Survey Analysts.

The overview

Over the past 10 years, Fort Bend ISD has seen an increased enrollment of 5,035 students with only 25% of those students enrolling in the last five years, Tepera said during a demographics report at a May 11 board meeting

During the last two years, Tepera said enrollment has been under what was projected due to several factors including:

• Fewer new houses being built this year than projected
• Less students moving into new homes
• The district seeing its smallest kindergarten class in 18 years

Since the 2014-15 school year, the number of transfers out of the district has increased with a majority of those students going to charter schools followed by other ISDs and virtual schools.

Nearly 500 more FBISD residents went to charter schools during the 2025-26 school year compared to last year, Tepera said. Additionally, two new charter schools are set to open in 2027-28 with four more announced.

When discussing homeschooling, Tepera said finding the full impact to the district is not easy because Texas is one of 20 states that does not require homeschoolers to register with the state.

In the meantime, Tepera said PASA is creating partnerships to develop geofencing technology to understand homeschooling’s effect on school districts.

Looking ahead

In the next 10 years, the projected estimate of student enrollment—and most likely outcome—is 68,634, Tepera said. The accelerated scenario could bring that number to 78,078 and the reduced scenario 60,485.

All three projections are possible depending on certain circumstances related to changes in mortgage rates, housing construction, new charter school plans, birth rates and kindergarten class sizes.