4.5M Texans voted in March 3 primary, shattering past turnout records

Texas’ previous primary turnout record was set in 2008, when 4.2 million voters cast ballots in high-profile presidential primaries, per state data.

There is “some certainty” that voter enthusiasm will extend to the November midterm election, Republican data analyst Ross Hunt told Community Impact during early voting.

“If you get a voter to turnout in the primary elections, that voter then becomes significantly more likely, and reliably more likely, to vote in November,” Hunt, who leads the Texas-based firm Hunt Research, said in a Feb. 24 interview. “From that perspective, Democrats who are looking at the prospects for a potential win, either statewide or wins down ballot in the fall, [are] bolstered significantly by this high... turnout.”

Zooming in

Election data shows the most people cast votes in the high-profile U.S. Senate races that topped the ticket, with the total numbers of votes steadily decreasing down the ballot in both primaries.

At the top of the Democratic ticket, state Rep. James Talarico of Austin and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas vied to become the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. Talarico won the nomination by six percentage points, telling supporters the Democratic Party was on track to “take back Texas.”

Texas Democrats aim to flip one or more top state offices in November, although no Democrat has won a statewide seat in Texas since 1994, Community Impact reported.

Talarico's opponent in the November election will not be revealed for a few months, with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton headed to a May 26 runoff election after neither Republican received more than 50% of the primary vote. Cornyn led the eight-way race with 41.89% of the vote to Paxton’s 40.68%, unofficial returns show.

In a March 4 Truth Social post, President Donald Trump said he would endorse a candidate “soon” in the GOP Senate runoff, indicating that the candidate he does not endorse should withdraw from the race.

Analysts and political scientists previously cited competition in the U.S. Senate races and other contests down the ballot as the main force driving voters to the polls this March.

“Simply put, competition drives turnout,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, who teaches political science at the University of Houston. “The 2026 primary has become a nationalized, high-visibility [election], and both parties have competitive races.”

Some state-level seats on the ballot were also open, and recent congressional redistricting meant several of Texas’ 38 U.S. House seats were in play, Community Impact previously reported.

Put in perspective

Who participates in Texas’ primary elections and how they vote can shape the future direction of the state, voter advocacy groups and experts told Community Impact last month.

About 3.3 million Texans voted in March 2024, compared to 11.3 million that November, per state records. In 2022, just over 3 million people voted in the March primaries and 8.1 million voted in November.

Due to low turnout, “your vote carries so much more weight in a primary election,” said Jordan Wat, the government affairs director for the nonpartisan think tank Texas 2036.

Demographic data from previous elections shows that primary voters tend to be older and represent the more extreme wings of their political parties:

• Sixty percent of voters in recent Texas primaries said they identified as either “strong Democrats" or “strong Republicans," according to March Matters, a nonpartisan voter engagement group.
• In 2022, over two-thirds of Democratic primary voters and three-fourths of Republican primary voters were age 50 or older, Derek Ryan, a GOP consultant who runs Ryan Data and Research, found.

This year’s primary was the first time since 2020 that more Democratic voters cast ballots than Republicans, state data shows. Roughly 2.1 million Democrats and 2 million Republicans turned out for the 2020 primaries, totaling about 4.1 million primary voters that year.

“There’s just general excitement amongst Democrats, and also anger,” Katherine Fischer, executive director of the Democratic Texas Majority PAC, said in a Feb. 24 interview. “Texans are, like everyone across the country, really frustrated and concerned about what the Trump administration is doing, what Texas Republicans are doing, and this is their first chance at a statewide level to weigh in. I think what this indicates is that Democrats are already very active in this [election] cycle.”