In the first quarter of 2026, housing growth has continued in Northwest ISD, according to a report from Zonda Demographics at the district’s regular May 18 board meeting.
The overview
While the district still is experiencing growth, it has slowed down in 2025-26 compared to recent years, said Stuart Keogh, an educational advisor with Zonda Demographics.
Keogh cited declining birth rates, a change in student mobility—which shows a statewide trend of more students being homeschooled or heading to charter schools—and the rate at which homes are being built.
He added that homes in NISD are still being built at a higher rate than in other nearby districts.
Despite growth slowing down, the Zonda Demographics presentation states that enrollment should continue to increase over the next 10 years.
“The numbers presented in our demographic reports are based on the projection's low range instead of the middle- or high-range of projections,” said Anthony Tosie, NISD’s executive director of communications. “We rely on these projections when creating our budget, which means the low projections are beneficial to conservatively balance our budget since schools are funded on the attendance of their enrolled student population.”
Overall, the district has seen enrollment increase of nearly 820 students from 2024-25 to 2025-26 and an increase of 7,400 students over the last five years.
Zooming inThe first quarter of 2026 showed higher closing to annual start rates in NISD, and more than 1,500 houses were available for purchase at the end of the quarter in the district, Keogh said.
“Closing almost 1,000 homes in the first quarter has been really great for this housing market,” Keogh said. “Most [districts] are down this first quarter.”
Home prices are more affordable than existing homes. Builders are offering incentives such as paring down interest rates when new builds are put on the market, Keogh said.
Overall, home sales have started to decrease, as well, which Keogh called a “post-COVID bubble” after people were increasingly buying houses from 2021-2023, causing prices to go up.
“It’s cooled everywhere since then. For this district, we’re seeing more of a moderation of cooling, which has been very positive,” Keogh said.
Looking ahead
NISD enrollment is forecasted to increase to nearly 35,600 students by the 2030-31 school year, the presentation states. With additional housing growth, enrollment is anticipated to grow to nearly 37,300 students by the 2035-36 school year.
The forecast includes projections with the opening of Romer Elementary School and Barksdale Middle School for the 2026-27 school year.
The district has 71 active subdivisions with approximately 1,070 homes under construction and more than 5,900 lots ready to be built on, according to the report.
There are 2,950 rental units currently under construction in NISD, and 950 of those units are single-family rental homes, the report states.
There are also nearly 5,000 future rental units in various stages of planning across the district, including more than 200 single-family rental units, Keogh said.
“We’re still trying to understand exactly who is living in those houses,” he said. “It’s surprisingly been more families than we would have initially thought.”
