According to predictions, the NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean with winds of 39 mph or higher, including:
- Six to 10 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher
- Three to five major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher
A closer lookOfficials said there are numerous factors contributing to the predicted season, including:
- Warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean
- Forecasts for weak wind shear, which is a variation in wind velocity
- Potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes
However, Graham said the NOAA is upgrading its Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System models, which will result in a 5% improvement in tracking and storm intensity forecasts. Additionally, forecasters will be able to provide more advance warning of potential hazards including issuing:
- Tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before storm surge or tropical force winds
- Advance notice of tropical cyclone risk three weeks prior to landfall
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a May 22 news release. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
The NOAA will continue offering Spanish updates and advisories as well as using an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic with depiction of inland tropical storms and hurricane watches, according to the release. A rip current risk map will also be provided when at least one active storm is present.
Saying prepared
