Houston ISD sees spike in enrollment decline following 2023 state takeover

Houston ISD has seen a growing decline in student enrollment since the state took over the district in June 2023, while experienced educators are leaving the district at higher rates, according to a Jan. 15 report released by the University of Houston’s Institute for Education Policy Research & Evaluation.

The details

While HISD’s enrollment has seen a steady decline since the 2016-17 school year, the decline accelerated in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 school years, according to the report.

“The overarching takeaway is that the student and teacher populations in Houston ISD are very different than they were before the takeover,” said Toni Templeton, senior research scientist at the IEPRE. “We are continuing to investigate the degree to which long-term, lasting improvement can be attained with a declining student population and an increasingly inexperienced and uncertified teacher workforce.”

A closer look

From the 2016-17 school year to the 2022-23 school year, the district lost 26,197 students, or about 12.1% of its total student population, according to the report.

From the 2022-23 to the 2023-24 school year, the district lost 13,208 students, or about 7% of its total population.

Enrollment declines were driven by HISD students moving to neighboring school districts and charter schools, as well as students choosing to leave Texas public education entirely, according to the report.

The report states the steepest drop occurred at the high school level, particularly in ninth grade, where enrollment fell 15.1% in two years.

HISD officials said the enrollment decline mirrors trends seen throughout the state and nation.

“While there is no single cause for enrollment decline, what we do know aligns with larger national and statewide patterns,” officials said in a statement. “Large urban non-charter districts across Texas are experiencing enrollment drops, while suburban and rural districts are seeing increases.”

Also of note

The report also documents substantial changes in HISD’s teaching workforce. Since the takeover, the number of first-year teachers increased by 64.7%, while teachers with two to five years of experience grew by 12.5%.

At the same time, the share of uncertified teachers rose from around 0.3% in the 2016-17 school year to 19.8% in 2024-25, according to the report.

“Research shows that more experienced and certified teachers are those most influential on positive student outcomes,” Templeton said. “HISD’s decision to hire more inexperienced, uncertified teachers with the hopes of making lasting change is an untested experiment.”

HISD officials also said the district is retaining its best and most effective teachers.

“Last year, more than 84% of teachers rated Proficient I or above and 89% of teachers rated Exemplary I returned for the 2025-2026 school year,” officials said in the statement.

What’s next

Moving forward, HISD officials said they will remain focused on factors they can control, including classroom instruction.

“The district remains focused on the factors within our control, including listening closely to families, strengthening instruction in every classroom, and sustaining the improvements that are already driving measurable progress across the District,” officials said in the statement.

Officials also pointed to the results of their winter 2025 family survey.

“HISD is encouraged by recent sentiment survey results that show more than 90% of families report favorable views of the district, and we hope to build on that sentiment and momentum,” officials said in a statement.