Grapevine-Colleyville ISD student population down 9% over the last decade

“Many of those are transfers to other districts and to charter schools,” Alexander said.

He also attributed a factor in the decline of district enrollment being parents choosing to homeschool their children.

“As parents have more choices, we’ve seen that homeschool number generally grow over the past few years,” Alexander said.

Alexander said the 10-year decline represents a loss of nearly 9%, but the decline has gotten faster over the past five years, with one of the main factors being the COVID-19 pandemic:

• 2013-18: a decline of 1.6%
• 2018-23: a decline of 7.3%

Alexander called GCISD a “mature district,” where families move in and then age in place. He said the gap between the outgoing 12th grade classes and the incoming kindergarten and first grade classes has positioned GCISD for faster declining enrollment. Specifically, he said in the 2023-24 school year, the average grade size from eighth to 12th grade is 146 students larger than the average grade size from kindergarten to fourth grade.

Alexander pointed out housing affordability—both in multifamily housing and single-family homes—is an issue contributing to enrollment declines. Referring to Grapevine-area apartment rent and occupancy rates, he said as monthly rent has increased over the past two years, occupancy rates have declined.

In terms of single-family homes, Alexander noted the following when it came to GCISD preowned home sales:

• A high interest rate environment has led to slower home sales in 2023.
• Preowned homes in the district sold at a record median price of $597,000 in the third quarter of 2023.
• Since 2013, the median preowned sales price has increased by 113%, with 44% of that increase since 2019.

Quote of note

“I want you to understand that this loss is not a reflection of performance in the district,” Alexander said. “Many of the people that have chosen to move here over the last 25 years are staying after their kids are grown. Affordability is a challenge and has kept younger families from coming into the district, and that’s starting to have an impact.”

Alexander's report was for informational purposes only. No action was taken by the GCISD board.