Population and Survey Analysts, or PASA, demographers said the remaining residential and retail growth within the Cy-Fair Fire Department service area is projected to be concentrated toward the Western areas along Grand Parkway.
The Harris County Emergency Services District No. 9 board of commissioners received a presentation from PASA and HdL Companies regarding population, demographic and tax revenue projections during a Sept. 17 special meeting as part of its fiscal year 2026-27 budget workshopping process.
The details
Harris County ESD 9 serves as a political subdivision and taxing entity that supports fire suppression and emergency service operations for CFFD.
The FY 2026-27 budget, based on the no new revenue property tax rate of $0.038548 per $100 of valuation, has a projected shortfall of $8.1 million, per previous Community Impact reporting.
Assistant Chief of Administration Mike Clements said the department turned to demographers to better understand the future of the district from a growth and budgeting standpoint.
PASA president Stacy Tepera said the CFFD area is projected to see a 21% increase in population by 2035, totaling 109,800 new residents over the next ten years. Tepera said this growth is not uniform throughout CFFD’s service area, with the highest amount of growth taking place along the Grand Parkway and western regions.
The projections
Tepera said the CFFD service area has reached the stabilization point on the demographic lifecycle, with characteristics of this stage including:
Around three-quarters of the residential CFFD service area is already developed, PASA Demographer Susan Cates said. CFFD serves more than just residents, as shops and businesses attract a daytime population, PASA Demographer Caroline Couch said.
Cates said once neighboring areas such as Waller build out more retail and shopping options, fewer people are likely to travel into CFFD service areas to shop. According to the presentation, the PASA study results are intended to provide CFFD with the geographic framework for evaluating:
Future station and apparatus needs
Staffing and deployment strategies
Response-area configurations
Capital improvements
By the numbers
During the Sept. 17 meeting, HdL Companies presented tax revenue projections for CFFD, based on growth within the district. According to previous Community Impact reporting, the district is projected to see $109.6 million in total revenue in FY 2026-27, based on the no new revenue property tax rate.
According to an HdL Companies presentation, the proposed property tax rate of $0.045 per $100 of valuation would bring in an additional $3.9 million in property tax revenue for FY 2026-27, compared to the no new revenue rate.
Looking ahead
The Harris County ESD 9 board of commissioners plans to meet Sept. 24 for a regular meeting at the District Administration Building at 10710 Telge Road, Houston, where it is slated to adopt the FY 2026-27 budget and tax rate.
