Declining birth rates, the rising cost of housing and a lack of developable land in central Austin ISD is leading demographers to predict decreased student populations in certain attendance zones over the next 10 years.

“There may be babies [being born to central district residents], and some babies will grow up to be kids that attend our schools, but not all of them—especially with the cost of housing,” said Beth Wilson, assistant director in AISD’s office of facilities.

Released in January, AISD’s 2016-17 annual demographic report found that certain elementary, middle and high school attendance zones along the US 183 corridor, throughout East Austin and in the 78704 ZIP code will see resident student declines over the next 10 years, especially in areas where affordability issues will prevent an influx of new families.

Attendance zones located Northwest, far South and Southeast Austin will see a slight increase in resident students as families located in the center of the region transition to suburban neighborhoods, the report said.

“The new apartment complexes do not generate Austin ISD students. They typically cannot be afforded by families,” Wilson said. “They can get a bigger bang for their buck getting a house.”

The critics

Some families, particularly those whose schools are located in neighborhoods where urban density is becoming more common, say the district’s projections are skewed by methodology misaligned with city building trends.

Maya Pilgrim, a parent at Ridgetop Elementary School, said the city of Austin’s rewrite of its land development code—dubbed CodeNEXT—will have an impact on how populations within school zones grow in the future. Ridgetop is projected to see a student population decline of more than 10 percent—from 102 students enrolled in 2016-17 to a projected 90.8 in 2026-27.

“Given the uncertainty and contentiousness around CodeNEXT, I think it’s likely the appropriateness of [AISD’s] methodology will have to be reconsidered,” Pilgrim said.

But the district’s demographers assert the shift from single-family detached to multifamily attached housing will adversely affect future student growth. According to Wilson, this is based on data that indicates these types of builds are not family-friendly.

“Those [multifamily attached homes] are a very hot product,” Wilson said. “These are the junior executive homes for the happy hipsters. It’s a rare case we see families in them.”

Wilson said she has been in talks with members of the city’s planning commission to try to determine how CodeNEXT, which encourages density by providing incentives to developers, could shift the way the district predicts future student populations.

“We may want to alter our projections based on [CodeNEXT],” she said. “But when the city talks about increasing density, it’s often talking about the number of units on an acre of land; it’s not necessarily talking about the number of humans.”

Pilgrim said the city’s challenges with regard to affordability affect middle- to low-income and minority families disproportionately because of the distribution of wealth in Austin.

“The question for me is not high-density zoning but how poor and middle-class families will fare in this zoning and how certain communities like the east side will be asked—and have already—[to] bear the brunt of changes to Austin as it continues to grow.”

Boundary shifts proposed

To resolve school enrollment issues, some district stakeholders have proposed shifting attendance boundaries. According to the annual report, “expected declines in enrollment would make the next few years an ideal time to realign boundaries to more closely conform to the district’s
demographics.”

Although shifting boundaries may seem like a logical solution, AISD trustee Yasmin Wagner said logistics often prevent this from happening.

“Some schools are extraordinarily underenrolled and some are bursting at the seams, but the proximity of those schools is so far apart that it is not as simple as changing a boundary to boost enrollment numbers,” she said.

Annette Vidaurri, whose twin children attend Brooke Elementary School on East Fourth Street just north of the Colorado River, lives south of the river off East Riverside Drive. She used to live closer to the school until the rent at her apartment increased from $845 to $1,265 in nine months after new owners took over, she said. Vidaurri said she is hoping her current landlord does not sell the property before her twins graduate fifth grade next year.

“[The landlord is] in talks to do that right now, so we’re dealing with that as well,” she said. “Bur our goal is to have them graduate there no matter what. ... It’s a really good school.”

Vidaurri said her children have to file for an in-district transfer to attend Brooke because they now live outside of its boundary zone. She said shifting those borders could perhaps retain many of the families that are moving away from the more expensive high-density development coming into the area.

Longstanding attendance boundaries should be reviewed in light of new development, Wagner said, but shifting a boundary should be the last resort, as it tends to do more harm than good.

“It’s a careful balance between what you gain from refining those boundaries and the challenge you create for the families living within those attendance areas,” she said.

Boosting enrollment

Rich DePalma, a former AISD Facilities and Bond Planning Advisory Committee member, said instead of relying on a boundary change to boost enrollment, an emphasis should be placed on strong academic programming.

“Programming does drive attendance, but at the same time there is a Catch-22,” DePalma said. “In order to afford programming, you have to have enough butts in the seats.”

The district has also increased its prekindergarten offerings to help increase enrollment at struggling schools.

“Granting families the transfer from anywhere is a great enrollment strategy for getting students to stay and increase enrollment for the long term,” Jacquie Porter, early childhood director for AISD, said.

Other modernized enrollment strategies, such as combining two schools that offer different programming into one attendance zone, have also been floated by members of the AISD community. Chris Farley, co-chairman of the district’s boundary advisory committee, said options like this should remain on the table, especially in light of the city’s ever-changing demographics.

“Austin is known as a progressive, dynamic city,” he said. “I think it is important for AISD to have that same reputation by looking at the many options that might better education for our students.”