Patrick Jankowski, vice president of research for the Greater Houston Partnership, spoke on the ongoing energy crisis and the effect the decreased cost of oil has on the economy during the Woodlands Area Chamber of Commerce's Economic Outlook Conference.
The GHP works to promote economic growth among 11 Greater Houston counties.
Jankowski allayed fears among some economists that the current crisis might be similar to that of the 1980s crash that crippled the Houston economy and saw the cost of oil drop to below $25 per gallon.
"This is not going to be a repeat of the '80s," Jankowski said.
Among the indicators Jankowski used as an example that the economic climate is different than that of the 1980s was that Houston developers have not overbuilt on speculative office space like they did in the 1980s. Speculative office space is constructed before a tenant has signed on to occupy the building.
However, the pace of recent job growth in Texas—about a 3 percent to 4 percent increase annually since 2012 compared with about 2.2 percent in the U.S., according to the Texas A&M University Real Estate Center—is not likely to continue if the cost of oil remains low, Jankowski said.
"Everybody [in Texas] is still seeing growth in this economy, just not at the pace of 100,000 jobs per year," he said. "Maybe we're getting ready to sink back to an average of about 50,000 jobs [added] per year."
Jankowski said the economic crisis is evident in the exploration efforts of oil and gas companies. He said companies will likely spend 30 percent to 40 percent less on exploration in 2015 than they did in 2014, and one-third fewer oil wells will be in operation.
"There are companies out there already having difficulties paying debt," Jankowski said. "You will have companies with layoffs."