Elementary and middle school grade levels will see the biggest decrease, with an anticipated decline of 2,163 elementary students and 838 middle school students between now and 2026. According to the report, conducted by Davis Demographics and Planning, the decline is attributed to decreasing birth rates in the area. This phenomenon will have a spillover effect to subsequent grade levels, driving lower rates through the end of the 10-year period.
The high school student population will experience an increase in the first half of the next decade, as larger classes move through secondary grade levels, before beginning a decline in school year 2022.
Residential development is on the horizon in many areas of the district, however demographers expect student growth to be limited due to a lack of affordability. The report states that an estimated 13,361 potential units are expected to be developed over the next decade, however, housing types continue to shift from single-family detached to multi-family attached, medium to high density residential units.
"We calculate the projections based on region and housing type," Beth Wilson, assistant director for AISD Planning Services said. "“It’s not perfect, but it gives you a guide as to what that student yield is for that housing product in that region.”
Trustee Paul Saldaña said that it is the responsibility of the board to advocate for the district's needs in terms of housing for current and future students.
"Student population is going to be limited because of type of houses being built," he said "It behooves us to make sure we are being assertive and strong in our communications with the city about the types of developments that will help the district."
Nicole Conley, AISD chief financial officer, said that while the district does not have the legal authority to build housing, efforts are underway by the FABPAC [Facilities and Bond Planning Advisory Committee] to strategically plan for the use of current facilities and the construction of new facilities.
"This information is the cornerstone of our work to be able to predict where those opportunities are," Conley said. "Physical spaces that develop tomorrow's students should look dramatically different than they do today. We conduct facilities planning with that in the front of our minds."
Projections for the next 10 years are as follow. Projections are based on where students live, not where they attend schools, and do not take into consideration transfers between schools. Population peaks are shown in red.
Austin ISD student population projections for the next 10 years.[/caption]
