While holiday shoppers and their checkbooks recover from Black Friday bruises, local retailers hope Christmas lists pay big dividends this year. If trends continue in The Woodlands, Shenandoah and Oak Ridge North, south Montgomery County can expect big gifts this holiday season.

"All retailers across the United States look at the holiday season," said Gene Satern, general manager of The Woodlands Mall. "It pushes what they drive for all year long. We work all year long to get that last six weeks of the year."

Sales tax revenue allocations in February—based on December sales—have consistently been the largest month of the year for The Woodlands, Oak Ridge North and Shenandoah, according to the State Comptroller's website. Sales this month could see a spike over December 2012 if the year's sales tax revenue growth continues. The Woodlands is up 12.9 percent in 2013, Shenandoah is up 9.2 percent and Oak Ridge North is up 4.4 percent through November allocations.

By comparison, the state has averaged 6.3 percent growth over that time.

New retailers and restaurants in 2013 along I-45, Research Forest Drive and throughout The Woodlands' Town Center have added to the major retail areas in south Montgomery County.

Karen Hoylman, president of The Woodlands Area Chamber of Commerce, said the retail growth in the region has been unique and an important component of the community's development.

"It's really a big, instrumental part of our success here," Hoylman said. "It's been really important in getting tourism dollars here, which helps keep the tax burden down on our residents."

With weeks left until Christmas, Hoylman said she encourages residents to shop at their local stores this holiday season.

"[Shopping locally] supports their friends and neighbors and keeps our economy going," she said.

The Woodlands

Since 2008, when sales tax revenue collection expanded to the township's current boundaries, The Woodlands' sales and use tax revenue has grown to an expected $44.2 million in 2013, a 64 percent spike over the past six years. If it were classified as a city, The Woodlands would rank as the 19th largest municipal sales tax revenue generator in Texas so far in 2013.

Monique Sharp, assistant general manager of finance and administration for the township, attributed much of the increase to retail growth in Town Center over the last decade, including Market Street's opening in 2004 and Waterway Square opening in 2008. Sharp said the overwhelming majority of sales tax revenue from retail sales comes from Town Center, including The Woodlands Mall and the Pinecroft Center.

Retail development in those areas has continued in 2013, with several new businesses arriving in Market Street, Waterway Square and the mall.

Satern said the first Tyler's and Noodles & Co. in the Greater Houston area opened this year near the mall, which also saw the arrival of Silver Jeans, the company's first storefront location. The second full-line Nordstrom in Houston could also have a major impact on the retail market when it opens at the mall in September.

"[Nordstrom is] going to [bring] a huge influx of shoppers," Hoylman said. "It's the most requested store I've seen in the 20 years I've been here. It'll be the only Nordstrom between Dallas and the Galleria."

Although retail, restaurants and hospitality account for about half of sales tax revenue, Sharp said, the other half comes from manufacturing, construction and the import of goods, as well as other services.

Sharp said construction of commercial buildings, such as the 31-story Anadarko tower and buildings at Hughes Landing and Research Forest Lakeside, provide significant use tax revenue to The Woodlands.

"There's just the whole synergy of new buildings coming online that throw off sales tax, and their transactions from coming here because you've got all this shopping and dining," said Nick Wolda, president of The Woodlands Convention & Visitors Bureau.

Sales tax revenue could keep climbing in The Woodlands as development continues. In addition to Nordstrom, Wolda and Sharp cited the upcoming completion of the Creekside Park Village Center and the continued development at Hughes Landing, both of which could have new retailers and restaurants in late 2014 or early 2015.

Shenandoah

Perhaps no community is more affected by its sales tax revenue than Shenandoah. City Administrator Greg Smith said sales tax revenue makes up 64 percent of its general fund revenue, while 100 percent of property tax revenue goes to pay off debt service—a distinctive feat among most Texas communities.

Retail growth has allowed Shenandoah—which has the lowest property tax rate in Montgomery County—to be reliant on sales tax revenue, Smith said. The city was ranked third of all cities in the state last year in sales tax revenue per capita, while Shenandoah's sales tax revenue rose by more than 78 percent from 2004 to 2012. Smith attributed the spike to retail growth along the east side of I-45.

"A lot of that growth is related to the big box stores we have," he said. "When you open up Sam's Club, Home Depot, Sam Moon Center and Portofino Shopping Center, that's going to be huge."

Much of the growth in 2013 has come along the Research Forest corridor, Smith said. Although Twin Peaks and a few other retailers and restaurants opened along I-45 this year, Research Forest Drive has seen several sales tax contributors open recently, including Fielding's Wood Grill.

Retail growth will continue along Research Forest Drive, Smith said, with Bob's Steak and Chop House and Paparruchos Restaurant and Bar set to open soon and several other areas planned for development along the thoroughfare. Other tracts of land are available for development on both the east and west sides of I-45, while the city could see as many as five new hotels in the next three to four years that could bring revenue to the city.

Oak Ridge North

Although not as prolific in generating sales tax revenue as The Woodlands or Shenandoah, Oak Ridge North's sales tax revenue rose more than 58 percent from 2004–12.

City Manager Vicky Rudy and Economic Development Coordinator Susan Cates attributed much of the growth to Rooms to Go—the city's largest sales tax contributor, which opened in 2008—as well as new retailers that opened along I-45 in 2011 and 2012, thanks to the city's economic development efforts. Rudy said only 60 percent of the city's available retail sites were occupied in 2010 as property owners were leasing space to offices instead of retailers. The city then issued a moratorium on incoming businesses and re-zoned space along I-45 for retail.

"Then we started our economic development efforts that same year, [and] Susan came on board," Rudy said. "We started actively working with our businesses for the first time. We started recruiting and the economy started to improve."

Rudy and Cates said retail growth picked up in 2011 with several stores opening in 2012, including Kirkland's, Baby's & Kids 1st Furniture and French Courtyard. This year has seen retail growth continue with the opening of Mattress One, Sears Home Appliance Showroom and Weightloss Texas along I-45. Of the 606,000 square feet of retail space within the city, about 50,000 square feet are vacant, Cates said.

"We're very pleased with the growth that we're experiencing," Cates said.

There are vacant land sites available for retailers, while the city's extraterritorial jurisdiction allows room for growth. She said the city's greatest opportunities for more retail could be a proposed town center at the intersection of Robinson and Hanna roads.

Although Rudy said property valuations and inflation have a greater impact on the city's property tax rate, sales tax revenue growth has helped the city lower its debt service rate from 49.69 cents per $100 valuation in 2004 to 19.33 cents in 2012 despite $8 million worth of ongoing infrastructure projects.

"For a city of 3,000, we are extremely healthy financially and extremely blessed to have a 1-mile stretch of retail along the freeway," Rudy said.